The British government regularly releases data on all deaths in England that identifies whether those who died had been vaccinated against COVID-19 or not. Some social media users have attempted to use the seemingly large number of deaths among people who have been vaccinated to suggest they are being killed by vaccines. This is false. The data shows that when adjusted for age and population size, those who have not been vaccinated have higher death rates, from COVID-19 and from other causes, than those who have been vaccinated.
In a post on X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter, that vaccination statistics released by the British government show that one out of every 73 people who received a COVID-19 vaccine in England before May 2022 died over that period.
It also presents, without context, figures about when people die after vaccination.
The post has by other users of the site, including ºÚÁϳԹÏÍøs, to claim that COVID-19 .
While the claim that one out of every 73 people who received a COVID-19 vaccine died over a 17-month period is roughly true, the lack of context is misleading and claims that the data suggest COVID-19 vaccines are killing high numbers of people are false.
Rating: False and misleading
The account appears to be referencing a from the British government's Office for ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø Statistics showing deaths between January 2021 and May 31, 2022. The data includes people aged 10 and over and breaks down whether those who died were vaccinated against COVID-19, based on when they received their first dose.
It includes death from all causes and does not specifically show deaths linked to the COVID-19 vaccines.
Data from table 8 show there were 606,536 registered deaths among people who were vaccinated and 138,704 among people who weren't over the 17-month period. ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø used table 8 for these figures as some of the others are tied to census data from 2011 and are limited to about 79 per cent of the population.
According to the country’s ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø Health Service (seen in table 9 in this ), 44,978,053 people in England had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by May 31, 2022. ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø used table 9 for this figure as it includes people who have died.
A report submitted to the British Parliament found that aged 18 and older in England had received at least two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of May 2022, and that only about three million adults had not been vaccinated.
To investigate the one in 73 claim, the mortality data from the ONS and vaccination data from the NHS need to be combined, however these figures include variations in population pools, so any combination of these numbers should come with a warning about its accuracy.
That said, slightly more than 600,000 deaths among 45 million people means 1.3 per centof those who were vaccinated over the 17-month period died at some time after vaccination, aroundone in 75.
The post on X also claims that one in every 482 vaccinated people in England died within one month of vaccination and one in every 246 died within 60 days of vaccination. However, the mortality data set doesn't provide the size of the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, only the number of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates, making such calculations impossible based solely on the data set.
Age-standardized rates are meant to ease comparison between different populations, accounting for the differences in the age structure of the groups being compared.
, the head of mortality analysis at the ONS that age-standardized mortality rates are measured per 100,000 person-years — which attempts to capture time spent at-risk and how much time people are in each group – because "the population changes each day due to people moving categories" as millions of people went from being unvaccinated, to getting their first dose, and on to receiving further doses.
Data should be evaluated carefully
"The data highlighted is not intended for use (as) an indicator of vaccine effectiveness or safety as there can be characteristics of the different vaccine groups, such as serious health conditions, which are not taken into account. Of course people die all the time, of a range of causes, regardless of their vaccination status," Lorna Tipper, a spokeswoman for the Office for ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø Statistics wrote in an email.
The United Kingdom's vaccination campaign prioritized people who were at higher risk, she said, meaning those with comorbidities were more likely to be vaccinated and were vaccinated earlier.
The data set shows that the vast majority of those who died during the period — both vaccinated and unvaccinated — were elderly.
About 82 per cent of those who died at some point after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine were over the age of 70, as wereabout 65 per cent of registered deaths among people who never received the vaccine.
In table 3 of the ONS data set, the data show people who were not vaccinated had an age-standardized mortality rate from all causes of 2,337.5per 100,000 person-years, compared with 957.4 for people who received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
The same report found that unvaccinated people were more than 10 times as likely to die from COVID-19, with an age standardized mortality rate from the disease of 863.2, compared with 64.5 for people who were vaccinated against the disease.
Among a group tracked on table 1 for the May 2022 edition of the study — which included approximately 79 per cent of English people over the age of 10 — more people who were unvaccinated, 38,285, died of COVID-19 than those who were vaccinated, 36,175,despite the fact the number of people who were vaccinated outnumbered the number of people who weren’t vaccinated for all but two months of the 17-month period.
Table 3 also suggests the age-standardized mortality rate was higher among unvaccinated people — 1,474 — than vaccinated people — 892.9 — when it came to non-COVID-19 related deaths over that period.
While the age-standardized mortality rate does take age into account, Tipper said that data should also be evaluated carefully as it doesn't account for the fact that higher-risk people were prioritized for vaccination and booster doses.
"The ASMRs are not equivalent to measures of vaccine effectiveness; they account for differences in age structure and population size, but there may be other differences between the groups (particularly underlying health) that affect mortality rates," she said.
Recent data
In later data sets produced by the same organization, similar trends were found — though the difference in non-COVID mortality rates shrunk.
"Throughout the time series those unvaccinated had a higher age-standardized COVID-19 mortality rate than those who had had any vaccination and those who had had a third dose or booster at least 21 days ago," Caul, from ONS, in reference to updated data released in February.
"In the latter half of 2022, non-COVID mortality rates for vaccinated people and those who have had at least a third dose or booster have been more similar to those of unvaccinated people than earlier in the year, although they remain slightly higher for unvaccinated people," she added in a .
That trend has continued in the latest data set, which goes up to May 31, 2023.
"Our data shows that The ASMRs for deaths involving COVID-19 have been consistently lower for all months since fourth dose or extra booster in spring 2022 for people who had received at least a fourth dose or extra booster at least 21 days ago, compared with unvaccinated people and those with just a first, second or third dose. Non-COVID-19 mortality rates are similar, though slightly lower, in people who have had a third dose or booster compared with unvaccinated people in the latter half of 2022 and in 2023," Tipper wrote.
Those numbers also don't suggest a sudden jump in deaths.
The ONS data suggests that 539,185 deaths occurred in 2021, while 206,055 occurred during the first four months of 2022. ( by the British government put the total number of deaths in 2021 at 549,349, and 2022 at .)
In 2020, there were in England. In 2019, the country , down from the previous year.
According to the same data source, COVID-19 was the leading killer in the England and Wales in 2021, , followed by dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, with 61,250 deaths.
On Aug. 31, in response to an access to information request, the ONS said there had been in England since March 2020, including 55 where the vaccine was believed to be the underlying cause of death.
Statistics from Canada
Statistics on all deaths in Canada by vaccination status don't appear to be available, however the federal government has published statistics on deaths from COVID-19 by vaccination status. That data set covers 73 per cent of COVID-19 cases in people five years or older.
As of Sept. 25, 2022, in Canada were among people who were unvaccinated, 16.8 per cent among people who had received a primary series of vaccinations, 23 per cent were among people who had received a booster and 4.5 per cent were among people who had received multiple boosters.
"Between Aug. 29, 2022, and Sept. 25, 2022, unvaccinated cases were three times more likely to be hospitalized and five times more likely to die from their illness, compared to cases with a completed primary vaccine series," according to a federal COVID-19 epidemiology update published Oct. 14, 2022.
That data is no longer being updated.
In an email, the Public Health Agency of Canada said it stopped publishing the data, which was provided by provincial and territorial health authorities, in part because testing became more restricted starting in December 2021 to preserve testing capacity.
"People at high risk of severe disease were now prioritized for laboratory testing as well as for COVID-19 booster. This meant that the people being tested were more likely than the general population to get severe illness or to have received boosters. This leads to a data bias which could cause people to mistakenly conclude that more vaccines lead to severe disease," the agency said in an unsigned email.
It said most ºÚÁϳԹÏÍøs have now had COVID-19 at least once. "This makes it difficult to separate the impacts of immunity from disease, immunity from vaccine and immunity from both."
As of Oct. 9, 2022, 83 per cent of the ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø population had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, according to . As of June 18 this year, of ºÚÁϳԹÏÍøs have had at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine.
In Canada, after COVID-19 vaccination as of May 26, 2023.
The federal government said 106 of those deaths were unlikely to have been caused by the vaccine and four of those deaths were likely to have been caused by the vaccine.
In the other cases, there was insufficient evidence to make a determination.
Sources
Claim can be found on X (), further claims can be found () and ().
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Sarah Caul, head of mortality analysis at Office for ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø Statistics, posts on X (), () and ()
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